Rate Cut?

So obviously, the big elephant in the room this week is the Fed announcement on Tuesday. This also falls on triple witching week. Options expiration in general tends to be a bit bullish, but this week, who knows?

A rate cut seems to be a foregone conclusion. I think I read somewhere that the fed futures were pricing in a 120% probability (no, I don't know how you get a larger than 100% probability). So if the cut doesn't happen, do we go into a tailspin? Or does that somehow send the message that the economy is doing better than we've been led to believe? (hard to say that one with a straight face)

More importantly, how does any of this affect your trading this week? I have several systems that I trade as one big (well, big in a relative sense) portfolio. I plan on doing nothing different this week than I would any other week. I may try to trade the announcement intraday with emini futures, but otherwise it's just business as usual. All of the systems I trade have been forward tested and most have been thoroughly backtested. I may experience a little bit of a draw down because of that, but that's just trading.

Sometime in the near future I'll go over how my systems are structured and in general how I trade. Suffice it to say that Dave and John over at The Trading Digest have had a huge impact on how everything is structured. If you haven't already, I highly encourage you to head over there and check it out.

Happy Trading.

Jon

Welcome

Welcome to my blog. I hope you will be able to learn something while you are here. I do not claim to have the holy grail of trading and my trades are frequently wrong. However, I do think I have learned some things in the past few years. Hopefully, my meager communications skills will allow me to pass some of those along to you. I also hope to gain some knowledge from the readers.