So obviously, the big elephant in the room this week is the Fed announcement on Tuesday. This also falls on triple witching week. Options expiration in general tends to be a bit bullish, but this week, who knows?
A rate cut seems to be a foregone conclusion. I think I read somewhere that the fed futures were pricing in a 120% probability (no, I don't know how you get a larger than 100% probability). So if the cut doesn't happen, do we go into a tailspin? Or does that somehow send the message that the economy is doing better than we've been led to believe? (hard to say that one with a straight face)
More importantly, how does any of this affect your trading this week? I have several systems that I trade as one big (well, big in a relative sense) portfolio. I plan on doing nothing different this week than I would any other week. I may try to trade the announcement intraday with emini futures, but otherwise it's just business as usual. All of the systems I trade have been forward tested and most have been thoroughly backtested. I may experience a little bit of a draw down because of that, but that's just trading.
Sometime in the near future I'll go over how my systems are structured and in general how I trade. Suffice it to say that Dave and John over at The Trading Digest have had a huge impact on how everything is structured. If you haven't already, I highly encourage you to head over there and check it out.
Happy Trading.
Jon
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Rate Cut?
Posted by Jon at 9/16/2007 02:36:00 PM
Labels: Fed
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